TOWARDS A BINDING AGREEMENT

- It's the spoken word that counts -

Ladies and gentlemen, a few days after the closing of the Copenhagen Climate Conference in December, there was a cartoon in International Herald Tribune:

It was a scene at the counter in the shopping mall. And somewhere in the line of people waiting to exchange their unwanted Christmas presents, there is a grumpy-looking polar bear holding the Copenhagen Accord!

Naturally, people (and perhaps polar bears as well) look back at Copenhagen and wonder:

With all the international attention; with all the public pressure; with all the media attention and with some 130 heads of state gathered, why was a legally binding agreement not possible? And if it wasn't possible in Copenhagen, what is then the chance of a legally binding agreement in Mexico in November?

But here it is important that we don't resolve to apathy and climate depression.

Instead of mourning that we couldn't all sing Wonderful Copenhagen together, we must accept the fact that politics is the art of the possible.

So even though the Copenhagen Accord was not what the world had hoped for, I would argue that it did address some of the most contentious issues in the negotiations. And thereby it also brought us one step closer to a global agreement.

Let us look at what is actually in the document.

First, there is recognition of the importance of the 2C target as the maximum temperature increase, recommended by science.

Second, the Accord establishes a framework in which all major emitters have joined.

My Swedish colleague has used a good metaphor to describe this: He compared climate change to a ship with three holes in it.

With the Kyoto Protocol, we mended one of the holes with the commitments of Japan and the EU. But there were still two holes left where the water kept pouring in. With the Copenhagen Accord, there is hope that we can mend the other holes as well.

Third, the Accord ensures immediate action through fast-track finance and the listing of reduction efforts and it sets a goal for long-term finance.

Fourth, the Accord has detailed provisions on MRV and national communications.

 

And finally, it also states that a technology mechanism, a forestry mechanism and a financial mechanism should be established.

Now with these accomplishments, why is a political agreement not enough? I think there are two main arguments:

First, there are still several issues to be solved
before we have an agreement that commits the countries in a satisfactory manner. As you all know, it was not possible to have the Copenhagen Accord agreed upon as a COP-decision.

The second argument is about investor security.

Huge investments are needed to overhaul the energy sector and improve energy efficiency world-wide.

And as public money constitute less than 15 percent of global financial flows, it is absolutely critical that we mobilize private capital to carry out the transformation. To make the right decisions, investors need long-term price signals, or they won't be able to explain them to their stake holders.

As one energy company CEO has put it: "Private companies don't make 40-year bets on a 15 minute price signal."

A legally binding deal with clear, ambitious targets would put a price on carbon and provide a long-term price signal.

That is why the ultimate objective of the negotiations must be a legally binding agreement.

However, I hope we can ensure a quick implementation of the Copenhagen Accord. And that the negotiations will build on the results we did achieve.

So how do we get on from here? Unfortunately we don't have an advanced GPS that can show us the detailed negotiating road to Cancun in Mexico.

What we do know is that the negotiations proceed in the two existing tracks – the Kyoto track and the Convention track under the UNFCCC.

Also, the UN negotiations should be supported by the outcomes from the G8 and the G20 meetings, and other political meetings.

Over the last two years, Denmark has engaged in an unprecedented shuttle diplomacy to boost the climate cause globally.

As COP-president, Denmark will work closely with Mexico and do our best to pass on the baton in the best way possible.

The Copenhagen conference taught us to be realistic about the expectations for these international, multilateral processes in a multi-polar world.

But that does not mean that we should give up the goal of a legally binding climate deal.

So on that note I would like to close with a quote from the same part of the world as the polar bear with which I started out.
It is an Inuit saying from Greenland. And it goes:

"Just when you walked as far as you could, and you can't take one step further, then you walked only half of the distance that you are capable of."

Thank you!