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I once read that Ancient Chinese leaders used Oracle Bones to tell the future.
Today, modern businessmen and women look to China’s Five Year Plan − hoping for a glimpse of future business opportunities.
This year the plan calls for an increase in wind energy of 90 Gigawatts by 2016. By comparison, the United States currently produces 35 Gigawatts.
Surely everyone knows about now, that China is no paper tiger.
In 2009, they poured $34bn into their low-carbon economy.
China now leads the world in solar photovoltaic production.
- and six of the biggest renewable energy companies in the world are based in China.
So China knows what's coming.
And despite what the mid-term elections suggest, so does the US.
President Obama recently used his State of the Union speech to call for a reinvention of America’s energy policy.
But what about Europe?
Well, United Kingdom just launched it’s carbon-plan this week, which in the words of energy minister Chris Huhne,
is going to help the country “get off the oil hook”.
In Spain the government has decided to reduce speed limits to save energy in response to the surge in oil prices sparked by the unrest in Libya and elsewhere in the Arab world.
Let there be no doubt: The new energy reality is already here.
In that light I am happy to learn, that despite a general slowdown and worldwide financial crisis, 2010 was in fact a promising year for the wind industry with new record growth in offshore wind power.
Wearing my national hat, this is certainly good news, since half of the worlds blades on off shore mills are made in Denmark.
After actually having been INSIDE one of these blades the other day, I understand what President Obama meant, when he said: "and they look even cooler up close".
Not to cool off the enthusiasm, here however I think it is safe to say, that the competition is however harder than ever.
That is definitely one good reason to keep on our toes.
The oil price is another.
This morning the price of oil was 111 dollars.
And with fears growing that the cost of oil could hit a new high, if instability in the Middle East persists and deepens, we simply need to end our overall oil-addiction.
In 2050, there will be nine billion people on this earth.
All of them, not least the Chinese and Indians, will demand the same material goods as us – whether that’s cars, travel or just basic electricity at home.
That’s going to send global energy needs soaring.
In the next 25 years alone the world’s energy consumption is predicted to increase by a third, and at the same time extraction of oil from known fields is going the other way.
The combination of these factors means that meeting future demands would require new oil production capacity equal to 6 times Saudi Arabia's.
That is even if we assume a doubling of renewables and nuclear power.
The problem, however, is that it’s hard to see where all that oil is going to come from.
The consequence is very likely rapidly increasing oil prices,
or − which is just as bad for the global economy – wildly fluctuating prices.
The writing on the wall is clear: oil dependence is a dangerous habit.
That’s why we can’t just continue with conventional sources of energy.
Or to quote Albert Einstein: ”The problems we have today cannot be solved by thinking the way we thought, when we created them”.
Hence, we simply need to embark upon a paradigm shift in our energy policy. And that’s why the Danish government recently presented its roadmap to fossil fuel independence.
The strategy outlines a long-term plan towards realising the goal of achieving independence from coal, oil and natural gas by 2050.
Increasing energy efficiency and the use of renewable energy are key to delivering these results.
No one doubts the magnitude of this task. We are talking about the biggest energy revolution since the oil crisis in the 70ties.
The results will be an increase in the share of renewable energy from 19 pct today to 33 pct in the next 10 years.
The share of renewables in electricity consumption will be even higher – from 29 pct today to 62 pct in 2020.
And wind energy alone will cover more than 40 pct of electricity consumption, which will form a unique world record.
This reminds me of the time Obama was touring the US, no more than a couple of years ago, showing off Denmark’s 20% wind energy as the perfect example of a green country.
Now we’re doubling that number.
I am especially excited about the plan to build a 600 MW offshore wind farm at Kriegers Flak in the Baltic Sea.
Besides delivering green electricity, it will also be part of a combined Danish-German solution where wind farms will be connected to a new offshore grid between Denmark and Germany - and with the possibility at a later stage that also Sweden will join us.
It will be a beacon for large, future sea-based power grids in the North Sea and elsewhere.
The Danish Energy Strategy 2050 is the first of its kind.
Not just in Denmark, but in the world.
What we're presenting is a well thought out roadmap for fossil fuel independence.
The strategy is based on 3 main principles:
- It shouldn’t cost more than the country can afford.
- It shouldn’t end up saddling consumers with enormous expenses.
- And it shouldn’t erode Danish companies' competitiveness.
In 10 years, when the initiatives in the strategy are fully implemented, households can expect an additional expense of €10 per month.
For businesses the cost is estimated to €6.5 per employee per month. This will be financed by implementation of a levy on heating.
If instead we chose not to transform at all, the costs would be much higher.
Exactly because the price of energy is rising.
And that does not only concern the kingdom of Denmark.
This goes for the world as well.
Because Denmark is obviously not an “energy island”.
No country is.
We are part of the European Union, and we’ll pursue our energy transformation with the rest of Europe.
Just to give you three examples:
First; We have decided to support that the EU should raise its own reduction target from 20% to 30%.
This will not only boost our clean tech industry; it will also breathe new life into our common trading scheme of CO2-credits, the ETS-system.
I believe this is in line with the recommendations in EWEA’s newly launched report.
Secondly; We are also strongly in favour of developing a common European energy infrastructure, the so-called super-grid system.
In fact ambitious climate and energy goals cannot be achieved without an integrated grid strategy.
To be very concrete, such a system would enable us to export extra wind energy to Germany when their solar panels are not producing any energy.
Similarly, we could import solar energy from Spain, Portugal and Germany when our wind turbines are not running.
As a result the price would come down and we would be able to adapt large volumes of renewable energy into our grid.
This would certainly contribute to the development of a European internal energy market.
Finally; We are strongly in favour of the ambitious European counterpart to the Danish 2050 energy plan just launched this week.
I hope it will serve as a long-term vision for a Europe independent of fossil fuels.
And I hope it will be followed by concrete initiatives.
Political leaders must act without delay to prevent Europe from losing its leadership in wind power and other green technologies.
But I would never underestimate the role of the industry in terms of bringing forward new research and innovation.
I hope wind energy in a longer time perspective becomes a cost efficient alternative to fossil fuels due to technological innovation, economies of scale, and the future price on CO2.
I would like to see Europe become a frontrunner of wind development and a centre of competence, by continuously pushing the borders for the proportion of wind energy, that we can possibly integrate in the grid.
The European wind industry has the golden opportunity to play lead guitar in the tune of “Winds of change”.
And just as the Danish wind industry was called “The wind, that powers Denmark” in the American cult cartoon the Simpsons last year.
I hope to see a future in which the European wind industry will power Europe.
Thank you for your attention.
I look forward to be seeing you at the EWEA annual event in my hometown next year.